Two Mainland analysts on "Lai Ching-te Administration's Foreign Policy Direction and Its Countermeasures"

Below is an article from Issue 3, 2024, of the Reunification Forum, published by the China Council for the Promotion of Peaceful National Reunification. The authors are Chen Ye, School of Politics and Administration, Tianjin Normal University, and Yu Jingting, PhD student at the Center for Taiwan Studies of Xiamen University.

赖清德当局对外政策走向及应对

Lai Ching-te Administration's Foreign Policy Direction and Its Countermeasures

With Lai Ching-te winning the 2024 elections in Taiwan by a narrow margin, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) entered its third term in power. Considering Lai's inaugural speech on May 20th and his previous words and deeds, the DPP administration is expected to strengthen Taiwan's ties and interests with the international community in the future and promote the internationalization of the Taiwan question by playing the "democracy card," the "chip card," and the "peace card," pursuing external support for independence and using military means to advance their goals. Consequently, the challenge for the mainland in countering "Taiwan independence" separatist forces and resisting external interference will become even more formidable.

Foreign Policy Propositions in Lai Ching-te's Inauguration Speech

Under the current complex and precarious situation in the Taiwan Strait, Lai Ching-te's inauguration speech has drawn significant attention. Based on his previous "Four-Pillar Peace Plan," Lai's speech aimed to strengthen Taiwan's connections and interests with the international community from political, economic, and security perspectives.

Under the guise of democracy and peace, Lai advocates for "values-based diplomacy." During the 2023 DPP presidential primary registration, he emphasized his intention to leverage these values, aspiring to make Taiwan "the MVP of the democratic world." In his inaugural speech, he mentioned "democracy" and "freedom" 33 times, declaring Taiwan as "an important link in the global chain of democracies" and "a frontline guardian of world peace." He proposed to promote "values-based diplomacy" and form a "democratic community" with other democratic nations, asserting that "standing side-by-side with other democratic countries, we can form a peaceful global community that can demonstrate the strength of deterrence and prevent war." His objective is to align with Western "partners in the values of democracy" like the U.S. to collectively encircle the Chinese mainland. At the same time, by exaggerating and constructing a confrontation between "democratic Taiwan" and "authoritarian mainland China", Lai echoes the U.S. narrative of "democracy vs autocracy", providing justification for Western intervention, like the U.S., in the Taiwan question.

Lai plans to capitalize on opportunities in semiconductors and artificial intelligence (AI) to accelerate Taiwan's "international marketing." Lai declared in his speech that Taiwan now masters advanced semiconductor processing technologies, positioning Taiwan as "a key player in supply chains for global democracies" and at "the center of the AI revolution." He claimed that Taiwan will take a threefold approach to further its development, using its economy as the foundation "to meet the world."

The first is to develop cutting-edge technologies such as quantum computers, the metaverse, and robotics; the second is to further develop space and maritime industries to "open up new horizons for the development of Taiwan's economy and industry"; the third is to push for joining regional economic integration, such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and to sign investment agreements with other democratic nations.

In recent years, due to reckless moves by the DPP authorities, the interdependency on cross-strait trade has been continuously decreasing. In 2023, the total trade volume between Taiwan and the mainland accounted for 28.75% of the its total external trade, the lowest in a decade. In the future, the Lai Ching-te administration will likely promote further economic decoupling from the mainland under the slogan "seize the business opportunities that come as a result of geopolitical changes" and shift the focus to "expand presence and market internationally."

Lai aims to promote "one China, one Taiwan" internationally and accelerate "de-Sinicization." Lai's speech not only mentioned "China" and the "People's Republic of China" for the first time but also referred to "Taiwan" almost as many times as in Tsai Ing-wen did in her two previous inaugural speeches combined. This highlights Lai's further emphasis on Taiwan's "political independence", seeking to separate "Taiwan" from "China", and "self-assert" that the cross-strait relationship is one of "state-to-state" relations where "the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are not subordinate to each other."

Jou Yi-Cheng, a scholar involved in Lai Ching-te's "National Project of Hope," believes that Lai's assertion that "the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China are not subordinate to each other" represents "the first time a Taiwanese leader has completely used the 'Constitution of the Republic of China' as the legal basis for Taiwan's 'sovereign independence.'" In comparison, when Chen Shui-bian assumed office in 2000, he pledged the "Four Noes and One Without" policy, which included not declaring "Taiwan independence" and not changing the name from "Republic of China" to "Republic of Taiwan." The Chinese mainland responded by saying it would "listen to his words and observe his actions." In 2016, Tsai Ing-wen promised to handle relations with the mainland according to the "Constitution" and the Cross-Strait Relations Act, which mainland China viewed as an "incomplete test paper."

Lai has not only significantly reduced the use of terms like "cross-strait" and "Chinese mainland" but also blurred the distinctions between the concepts of "Republic of China," "Republic of China (Taiwan)," and "Taiwan," asserting that all three are "names of the country." This leaves little room for maneuver and directly pushes the two sides of the Taiwan Strait into a confrontational situation, and thus the Chinese mainland has no more observation period for Lai Ching-te. With his inaugural speech as a prelude, Lai is bound to promote the expression "one China, one Taiwan" in the international arena in the future, and further promote "de-Sinicization" in terms of culture, ethnicity, and national origin.

The International Community's Perception of and Reaction to Lai Ching-te's Inaugural Speech

From January 13, 2024 to Lai Ching-te's inauguration, 73 delegations, totalling 687 people went to Taiwan to express the so-called "congratulations" to Lai Ching-te and Hsiao Bi-khim, of which 179 people from 22 delegations "congratulated" Lai Ching-te before his inauguration, and 508 people from 51 delegations participated in activities related to Lai Ching-te's inauguration. These countries include the so-called "diplomatic allies" of Taiwan, such as Belize, Guatemala, Haiti, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent, and the Grenadines, as well as countires with so-called "non-diplomatic representation" such as the United States, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Singapore, and Australia. After Lai Ching-te took office, many countries expressed their opinions on the contents of his inaugural speech.

The vast majority of countries represented by Russia clearly adhered to the one-China principle and did not support "Taiwan independence." Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova said that Lai's inauguration was a show of disrespect for the sovereignty of other countries and their international obligations committed to paper in foreign policy documents, and that some countries led by the United States were "deliberately undermining stability and security in the Asia-Pacific region, hampering China's peaceful reunification." She also affirmed that Russia would not establish any official relations with Taiwan.

Vietnamese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Pham Thu Hang said Viet Nam has maintained and developed people-to-people and non-governmental relations with Taiwan in various fields such as economy, trade, investment, sci-tech, culture and education; and has not established any state-level relationship with Taiwan.

In an interview, President Zardari of Pakistan made it clear that Pakistan abides by the one-China principle and recognize Taiwan as an inalienable part of China's territory.

These countries represent the mainstream voice of the international community and the voice of justice. They have demonstrated a clear position of abiding by the one-China principle. This is the right move in line with the trend of history.

However, a small group of countries led by the United States, including Japan, Australia, Canada, and South Korea, claimed to adhere to the one-China policy while, in reality, supporting the Lai Ching-te administration and exploiting political ambiguities. These countries, citing Taiwan as a so-called "democracy," expressed their intention to deepen cooperation and exchanges with Taiwan, suggesting that Lai could "lead Taiwan in sustaining peace, prosperity, and progress."

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken issued a statement "congratulating" Lai on becoming "fifth democratically elected president" and looking forward to working with the Lai administration to "advance our shared interests and values, deepen our longstanding unofficial relationship, and maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait." A U.S. State Department spokesman said the U.S. "welcomed" Lai's inauguration and victory speech made by the commitment and that Beijing would be the provocateur should it choose to respond with additional military pressure or coercion. The U.S. urged China to exercise restraint, and reiterated that Beijing should not use Taiwan's transition as a pretext for provocative or coercive measures.

It is evident that the U.S. Government not only supports Lai's so-called "democracy theory" and "peace theory", but also openly endorses the Lai administration, fully reflecting that the U.S. is the driving force behind the internationalization of the Taiwan question.

Japan also expressed "congratulations." Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said Taiwan is Japan's "extremely important partner and a precious friend" that shares basic values, economic ties and people exchanges, and that Tokyo plans to deepen "nongovernment" cooperation with Taiwan. After the inauguration ceremony, a 31-member cross-party delegation led by the Liberal Democratic Party lawmaker Keiji Furuya and former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's widow, Akie Abe, met with Lai in Taipei, a record number of people. Keiji Furuya told Lai that Japan-Taiwan relations were "more important than ever" amid increasing "threats" from the Chinese mainland, and called for stronger cooperation with the United States and other countries that share common values in order to prevent a Taiwan emergency.

In addition, members of Congress from South Korea, Canada, and Australia who attended the inauguration ceremony publicly expressed their support for Lai. These anti-China politicians from the United States and other Western countries are not merely offering symbolic "congratulations" but are providing substantive political endorsement and operational cooperation with the Lai Ching-te administration, representing a significant departure from the one-China principle.

Chinese Mainland Faces the Challenge of Lai's "International Route to Taiwan Independence"

In terms of foreign policy, Lai's administration continues to seek expanded international space under the political mindset of "Taiwan independence," leveraging its so-called "democratic identity" to align with the West in a values-based confrontation, economic "de-Sinicization," and military deterrence against China. The U.S. and other Western countries' perceptions of and reactions to Lai's "international route to Taiwan independence" have further fueled his ambitions. From the perspective of Lai's foreign policy, the Chinese mainland will face three primary international challenges to "Taiwan independence": "democratic Taiwan independence," "economic Taiwan independence," and "peaceful Taiwan independence."

Taiwan's "democratic independence" on the global stage. An important part of Lai's foreign policy is to link Taiwan to the world through "democratic values." In his inaugural speech, Lai repeatedly mentioned "democracy" to pave the way for Taiwan's entry into the world, to portray Taiwan as an important member of the "democratic" world, and to argue that guarding Taiwan's democracy is guarding the world's democracy.

Using "democracy" to bind Taiwan with the international community not only garners support and recognition from other countries and serves as a crucial link in Taiwan's international cooperation, but also decieves the Taiwanese people, reinforcing their misconceptions about the Chinese mainland. In essence, Lai's emphasis on "democracy" is a pretext for securing foreign aid and distancing Taiwan from the mainland, while gaining international sympathy under the guise of "democracy." This strategy fosters an international atmosphere conducive to "Taiwan independence" and complicates the prospects for reunification.

Taiwan's "economic independence" on the global stage. Lai's future economic policy continues to seek "economic decoupling" from the Chinese mainland and deepening economic cooperation with the United States and other Western countries. In his inaugural speech, Lai said, "We will endeavor to sign bilateral investment agreements with other democracies around the world and further deepen our trade partnerships." "We must walk on the right path, and our industries must make every effort, so that we may be a force for global prosperity. With every step forward that Taiwan takes, the world takes a step forward with us."

Taiwan's chip industry is already on the move. In April 2024, TSMC, the world’s largest computer chip maker, announced plans to expand its investment in the U.S. to $65 billion. This decision follows the Biden administration's pledge of $6.6 billion in incentives to help ensure TSMC’s Arizona plant remains on track to produce roughly 20% of the world’s leading-edge chips by 2030. The Taiwan authorities are leveraging their semiconductor advantage to strengthen economic ties with the U.S. and other Western countries, seeking international support for Taiwan and advancing the policy goal of "economic confrontation with China."

Taiwan's "peaceful independence" on the global stage. Lai's future administration is bound to focus on "peaceful Taiwan independence", which is in reality "forceful independence" and "military independence." On the one hand, Lai repeatedly emphasizes maintaining and supporting peace, and on the other hand, he increases the armament of Taiwan. Lai repeatedly emphasizes the importance of maintaining and supporting peace, while simultaneously bolstering Taiwan's military capabilities. His paradoxical logic is that only by strengthening Taiwan's military power can the island deter the mainland, ensuring that China will not dare to attack, thus achieving what he calls "peace."

Lai's concept of "peaceful Taiwan independence" heavily relies on military assistance and arms sales from the U.S. and other Western countries, alongside the aggressive development of Taiwan's own military forces. For instance, he advocates for the construction of Hai Kun-class submarines and the reinstatement of one-year compulsory military service. Lai Ching-te is trying to further "arm" Taiwan as a whole, thus demonstrating Taiwan's so-called "national defense strength" and attempting to form "partnerships" and "alliances" with the international community to maintain the so-called "peace" through joint military exercises and other means, in order to achieve the goal of "peaceful Taiwan independence."

Chinese Mainland's Response and Countermeasures

For democratic Taiwan independence, it is necessary to break the DPP authorities' "democratic" narrative on the Taiwan question and strengthen international exchanges and the political dissemination of the one-China principle. Since Tsai Ing-wen came to power, she has been actively building up Taiwan's "democratic image" and emphasizing the so-called "Taiwan values" in the international community, and has made democracy the political basis for expanding international cooperation. Lai's Administration has placed even more emphasis on "value diplomacy" and has made "democratic Taiwan independence" an important means of foreign policy. As a matter of fact, the DPP authorities are practicing "authoritarianism" in the name of "democracy" in the region, so it is necessary to strengthen the criticism of the DPP authorities' "fake democracy." In addition, the Chinese mainland needs to intensify international exchanges, clearly communicate its firm stance on the one-China principle to the global community through various channels, and enhance the international narratives surrounding the Taiwan question. By doing so, China can assert its voice on the Taiwan question and shape a more accurate perception of the Taiwan question within the international community.

For economic Taiwan independence, Taiwan and the U.S. are leveraging the semiconductor industry to jointly counterbalance the Chinese mainland. In response, the Chinese mainland should provide significant financial and policy support to domestic chip manufacturing plants and equipment factories. While Taiwan and the U.S. possess some high-end technology, their export restrictions on the Chinese mainland may pose short-term challenges to China's chip industry. However, in the long run, these restrictions will not push China into a desperate situation; rather, they will spur China to accelerate the development of its own industry, ultimately leading to the establishment of a high-end chip industry system independent of the West. By continuously pursuing self-reliant development and exploring alternatives to products from the U.S. and Taiwan, China will inevitably overcome these "choke points" in the future.

For peaceful Taiwan independence, strict diplomatic sanctions should be imposed on countries or international organizations that engage in close official contacts with Taiwan. The Taiwan question is an internal affair of China, and no foreign power has the right to dictate how or when reunification should occur. Any foreign cooperation with the Taiwan authorities under the guise of recognizing Taiwan as a "sovereign state" is a direct challenge to the one-China principle. Official contacts between any country or region and Taiwan, as well as any form of military assistance to Taiwan, constitute interference in China's internal affairs. Given that the Taiwan question lies at the core of China's core national interests, it is imperative for China to take strong measures against international provocations that undermine the one-China principle and interfere in its internal matters. As the Taiwan question becomes increasingly complex, China's countermeasures must become more diversified and comprehensive.

(Chen Ye, School of Politics and Administration of Tianjin Normal University; Yu Jingting, PhD Student at the Center for Taiwan Studies of Xiamen University)

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