Current dynamics in the Taiwan Strait according to Chen Yongjiang
Current dynamics in the Taiwan Strait according to Chen Yongjiang
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences researcher on Taiwan says the future depends on cultural identity, non-official exchanges, balance of power in the island, and risky behavior by the governing DPP.
The “Taiwan Question” is of such importance that we will dial up coverage here and in Pekingnology.
After rolling out an article from Issue 3, 2024 of the Reunification Forum, published by the China Council for the Promotion of Peaceful National Reunification, today's newsletter will feature another analysis from the same issue by 陈咏江 Chen Yongjiang, Deputy Director, Legal Studies, Institute of Taiwan Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
It is also available on 统一之声 The Voice of Reunification, the official WeChat blog of the China Council for the Promotion of Peaceful National Reunification.
略论影响当前及今后一个时期台海走势主要因素
A Brief Discussion on the Main Factors Influencing the Current and Future Trends in the Taiwan Strait
The Ukraine crisis has persisted for over two years with no signs of ending in sight; worse still, it risks further escalation. 2024 is set to be particularly turbulent, with over 50 countries and regions, including the United States, Russia, and India, holding elections, involving nearly half of the world's population. Meanwhile, the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict has resulted in over 35,000 deaths, the majority of whom are civilians. Amid persistent geopolitical tensions, the Taiwan Strait has also been experiencing significant instability and even the threat of war. Maintaining the current peace and stability has been a hard-won achievement. Until global turbulence settles, the Taiwan Strait will continue to face various destabilizing factors, posing greater challenges to those who aspire for peace.
Factors Threatening Peace and Stability in the Taiwan Strait Have Been Increasing and Strengthening
Firstly, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) remains entrenched in the arrogant fantasy of "Taiwan independence."
The DPP has long lived within the delusional rhetoric of "Taiwan independence" and has yet to abolish its "Taiwan Independence Clause." The party not only deceives voters with the "Taiwan independence" ideology to gain power, but its politicians are also so deeply engrossed in that. They seek to establish a legal framework supporting "Taiwan independence" with power and enforce related policies through law enforcement departments, escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait.
The unresolved 2/14 Kinmen Incident is a case in point. Misguided by the DPP's fallacious politics, emboldened by the Taiwan Coast Guard Administration's de facto encouragement, and driven by the Coast Guard Administration's senior officials' erroneous views on political achievements, Taiwan Coast Guard resorted to reckless and violent "law enforcement" methods. The DPP has shown no intention, capability, or power to address the aftermath of the tragedy. Such sudden incidents are potential time bombs for the peaceful development of cross-strait relations. The root cause lies in the fact that DPP officials, entrenched in the ideological discourse created by their authorities, lack basic respect for life and hard-won peace across the strait.
The DPP, having been in power for a long time, has not only established extensive connections with the business community, gradually building up a political ecosystem that supports its power grab through election, but, worse still, it has begun to sway public opinion of the Taiwan island and challenge fundamental legal boundaries. Tsai Ing-wen and Lai Ching-te, reportedly, even intend to grant Chen Shui-bian a "pardon". Moreover, compared to Tsai Ing-wen's "soft, incremental independence 柔性渐进式台独," Lai Ching-te, who comes from the southern Taiwan city of Tainan, the relatively secluded and conservative "deep-green" (more radical, pro-independence leanings) DPP stronghold, has shown a more "stubborn and rigid" stance on "Taiwan independence." Whether he will adopt confrontational "independence" 硬刚式台独 following Chen Shui-bian's path of "reckless provocation 暴冲式台独" remains highly uncertain.
Secondly, the irresponsible political maneuvers by anti-China forces in the West, including the United States, have exacerbated the situation.
As the upcoming U.S. presidential election heats up, both the Democratic and Republican parties are eager to showcase America's hegemonic power to voters. Both parties are motivated to play the "Taiwan card" and have already made moves in that direction. In Congress, both Republicans and Democrats are solely focused on winning votes when dealing with China and Taiwan issues, showing no regard for the consequences. They are racing to grandstand by "using Taiwan to contain China" in a bid to secure voter support, which is increasingly way off. They have even begun to challenge UN Resolution 2758. Japanese politicians are following suit, brazenly proclaiming that "a Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency" and sending the largest delegation ever to attend Lai Ching-te's inauguration. The irresponsible actions of the U.S. and Japan easily con Lai Ching-te and DPP politicians into believing they can break through the "One China" principle internationally. This increases the risk of them collaborating with the U.S. and Japan in taking provocative actions. Even before his inauguration, Lai Ching-te declared, "Any contingency for Taiwan is a contingency for Japan, and vice versa."
Thirdly, there is a small group of deeply influenced "deep green" voters within Taiwan.
Whether it was the 2018 anti-nuclear food referendum, the 2021 referendum on U.S. pork imports, or the upcoming 2024 Taiwan election, it is clear that the political direction of Taiwan is heavily influenced by the will of southern voters. "Deep green" regions like Tainan, which are relatively secluded and economically less developed, have a simpler economic and social structure. These areas have long been under the influence of the DPP's narrative and manipulation, forming Lai Ching-te's stronghold, where even news like the mainland's satellites flying over southern Taiwan [prompting an erroneous air raid alert] can trigger a high voter turnout. The DPP's die-hard supporters will likely remain swayed by the party's small benefits and promises in the short term. However, in the long run, these are the ones who will suffer the most. Some of the youths in the "Sunflower Student Movement," who once supported the DPP and now face extended military service, have started to reflect on their past doings. Nevertheless, significant changes in the southern regions are not visible in the short term. This situation poses a high risk of these areas becoming a shield for the DPP's reckless actions.
Rising Forces and Desires to Maintain Peace and Stability in the Taiwan Strait
Firstly, the Chinese mainland has demonstrated confidence, wisdom and strength in addressing the Taiwan question.
Amidst the ongoing provocations by the United States and Western powers in the Taiwan Strait, the irresponsible actions of the DPP administration in creating cross-strait incidents, and the increasing cases of conflicts being resolved through warfare, the Chinese mainland has demonstrated confidence, wisdom, and strength in addressing the Taiwan question.
Recently, General Secretary Xi Jinping met with Ma Ying-jeou and put forward "four firm commitments." "We should grasp the cross-Strait situation by taking into consideration the overall interests and long-term development of the Chinese nation," Xi said. He stressed that Chinese people on both sides of the Strait have always been one family and must "firmly safeguard the shared home of the Chinese nation," "work together for the long-term prosperity of the Chinese nation," "firmly forge a strong sense of community for the Chinese nation," and "remain committed to achieving the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation."
This conveys a significant political message to the United States and other anti-China Western forces that use Taiwan as a lever: the Chinese nation possesses the wisdom to resolve its internal affairs. Like Xi said, "The future of the Chinese nation should be firmly held in the hands of the Chinese people." All Chinese on both sides of the Strait can solve the problems on their own and should firmly oppose any interference by external forces. General Secretary Xi Jinping sent a clear political message to Taiwanese society, that is, as long as no separatist activities are performed and people on both sides of the Strait realize that they are all Chinese people and part of one family, compatriots on both sides can sit down and have discussions.
Subsequently, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism of the People's Republic of China announced that it will take the lead to resume tourism for residents of East China's Fujian Province to visit Matsu. After direct passenger sea routes between Pingtan, Fujian and the Taiwan island are resumed, group tours for Fujian residents to Taiwan will also be reinstated. The General Administration of Customs announced that, based on scientific assessments, it will approve the import of Wendan pomelos and other agriculture and fishery products from Taiwan, given that they meet the quarantine requirements of the mainland. Additionally, the mainland proposed direct flights between 30 major mainland cities and Taiwan, with 20 densely populated cities, including Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Chongqing, opening online applications for entry permits into Taiwan. Fujian Province announced a new batch of policies benefiting people in Taiwan, including 13 measures across three areas: supporting the development of enterprises from Taiwan, encouraging employment and entrepreneurship, and promoting training and internships.
Secondly, the majority of people in Taiwan have expressed a strong desire for peace and development.
Before the election, 60% of people in Taiwan wanted to remove the DPP from power. The combined votes of Hou You-yi of the Kuomintang (KMT) and Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) accounted for about 60%, while Lai Ching-teh secured only around 40%, slightly higher than Chen Shui-bian's 39.3% vote share in 2000. In the meantime, the Taiwan legislature was reshuffled, with the KMT emerging as the largest party, though it did not secure a majority. Coupled with the key seats held by the TPP, the DPP has found itself in a "double minority" situation. After the election, a majority of Taiwan's population voiced their desires for "peace over war, development over decline, exchange over separation, and cooperation over confrontation." They criticized the DPP authorities for creating unexpected cross-strait conflicts and expressed hope for resuming and expanding cross-strait exchanges, as well as lifting various restrictions on such exchanges.
Thirdly, the anti-"independence" political forces in Taiwan are proactively promoting the peaceful development of cross-strait relations.
In early April, Ma Ying-jeou visited the Chinese mainland, leading the Dajiu Academy youth delegation on visits to Guangdong, Shaanxi, and Beijing where he met with Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People. Ma Ying-jeou said that amid the current cross-Taiwan Strait tensions, he would try on the visit to convey the Taiwanese people's love of peace and voice hope that the sides can increase bilateral exchanges and avoid war. This visit by Ma was of great significance, reigniting non-governmental exchanges across the Strait.
In mid-April, KMT Vice Chairman Hau Lung-bin visited the mainland and paid homage at the Mausoleum of the Yellow Emperor. He said that people on both sides of the Strait are Chinese, sharing the same ancestry as descendants of the Yan and Huang Emperors, and expressed his willingness to contribute to the peaceful development of cross-strait relations and to create greater well-being for compatriots on both sides.
At the end of April, KMT legislative caucus convener Fu Kun-chi led a delegation of legislators to visit the mainland. Fu Kun-chi remarked, "Compatriots on both sides of the Strait share the same culture, bloodline, and ancestors. We are all Chinese and belong to the same family. I hope that, based on the common political foundation of the KMT and the Communist Party of China, we can promote cross-strait exchanges and cooperation, facilitate mutual visits among compatriots, jointly maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait, and push cross-strait relations back onto the track of peaceful development, enhancing the well-being of people on both sides and creating a brighter future together."
In early May, Chang Ping-chao, Chairman of the Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF), led a delegation of 25 to visit the mainland. The group included media figures such as Kuo Cheng-liang, a familiar name to mainland audiences, as well as former legislators and entrepreneurs. Chang Ping-chao expressed the hope to further expand cross-strait interactions, promote cultural identity among compatriots on both sides, and solidify the foundation for the peaceful development of cross-strait relations.
Following this, more political figures such as Wang Jin-pyng, Lee Kan-long, and Hung Hsiu-chu are expected to visit the Chinese mainland. All this creates a small wave of renewed cross-strait exchanges, bringing a touch of warmth to the frosty and tense cross-strait situation.
Taiwan at a Crossroads: Which Path to Take?
Firstly, whether to return to a shared Chinese identity or to aggressively pursue cultural "independence."
On one hand, Lai Ching-te has stated his intention to "transform Taiwanese society and cleanse the hearts of every individual in Taiwan." His promotion of figures like Cheng Li-chun [vice premier of the Taiwan region] and Li Yuan [minister of culture of the Tawian region, also known by his pen name Hsiao Yeh] makes it clear that he aims to push for "cultural Taiwan independence." He is expected to engage in various subtle moves to diminish Chiang Kai-shek's influence, de-sinicize, and promote independence during his term in office, attempting to impose the DPP's ideology on the majority of people in Taiwan. On the other hand, given that people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait share the same culture and destiny, if the Lai Ching-te administration goes too far and alienates itself from the Chinese nation, it will inevitably bring various inconveniences and restrictions to people's lives, resulting in a situation where they shoot themselves in the foot. Such actions would not only be condemned by Chinese people on both sides of the Strait but also be marked as a disgrace in history.
Secondly, whether restrictions on people-to-people exchanges can be eased and whether security can be ensured.
This will have a profound impact on public opinion and the future of cross-strait relations. The future of cross-strait relations depends on the joint efforts of compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. If the two sides become more closed off or even confrontational, unexpected incidents will inevitably escalate tensions and cause discomfort and harm to both sides. It would erode the peace dividends and damage the prospects for cross-strait relations, causing concern for those who cherish peace while gratifying supporters of "Taiwan independence."
The Chinese mainland has proactively and unilaterally opened up, offering various benefits to facilitate cross-strait exchanges and cooperation, and has maintained channels for peaceful development despite numerous shocks and challenges. Whether the mainstream public opinion in Taiwan can be converted into real pressure on the DPP administration and a positive convergence of cross-strait sentiments depends on the timely easing of restrictions on exchanges. A relaxed and normal external environment is essential for the peaceful development of cross-strait relations and for withstanding provocations and unexpected challenges.
Thirdly, whether the opposition forces can effectively constrain the DPP administration and transform their aspirations into legal guarantees.
The DPP controls the executive branch and the judicial and intelligence systems, while the opposition has only a relative advantage in the legislative body. Given this, whether the opposition can withstand the pressure and turn the mainstream public's demands into tangible legal protections depends on these representatives truly recognizing the seriousness of the issues, understanding their responsibilities as public representatives, and grasping the fundamental reality that cross-strait relations will regress if not actively advanced. This is crucial to preventing the DPP from further damaging cross-strait relations and ensuring that exchanges between the two sides return to the right track.
Fourth, whether the DPP administration will recklessly engage in "Taiwan independence" ventures under the incitement of external forces.
Anti-China forces in the West, such as the United States, are likely to exploit elections to create various sensational and provocative statements, bills, visits, and even secret agreements regarding the Taiwan Strait. If the DPP administration acts prudently under the supervision of the opposition forces, the situation in the Taiwan Strait may remain relatively stable. However, if the DPP continues to act shortsightedly, indulging in the arrogant fantasy of "Taiwan independence," and recklessly betrays Taiwan's core technologies, as well as the property and lives of its people, this will lead to irreparable damage to the future of the Taiwan Strait and the well-being of Taiwanese compatriots. Ultimately, it will undermine the social foundation of the DPP's survival and development.
In summary, regardless of how the landscape evolves, the wheels of history continue rolling toward the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. The Chinese mainland has the capability to lead its 1.4 billion citizens to a prosperous life and is fully capable of creating a bright future together with Taiwanese compatriots. The mainland is determined to protect the common home of the Chinese nation and, together with Taiwanese compatriots, pursue a peaceful reunification, ensuring that the future of the Chinese nation is firmly held in the hands of the Chinese people.
 | A guest post by
|