Ronnie Chan: Keep calm and try to stay alive

Hong Kong property tycoon warns of even worse days to come; but China still has the stamina.

Ronnie Chan is Honorary Chair of Hang Lung Group, Chair Emeritus of Asia Society and the Chairman of its Hong Kong Centre. On 23 October 2025, he spoke at a seminar organised by the Shanghai Development Research Foundation, a nonprofit public charity established in 1993.

Chan echoed what he had expressed at a CCG luncheon in June 2024: “Now is the time to stay alive, preserve your capital; now is not the time to become aggressive to expand in many ways.” The good days, he suggests, are over; the world is splintering into regional blocs, rewired supply chains, and multipolar politics. As Shakespeare put it, “Thus bad begins and worse remains behind.”

His cultural warning is as stark: a younger generation, overly enamoured of unfettered Western “freedom”, risks moral confusion and rebellion. What China needs now, in his view, is discipline, steadiness, and sensible patriotism.

On geopolitics, he is, if anything, more sanguine. The U.S.–China rivalry is “game over”, he contends—a test of stamina that China will outlast as America lapses into isolationist bouts. Finance, he said, has lured the West into short-termism and hollowed out industry, while China’s ballast remains its manufacturing heft, social patience, and the ability to navigate a more ruleless world.

—Yuxuan Jia

Ronnie Chan at CCG VIP Luncheon, 7 June 2024

On 5 November, SDRF published on its WeChat blog a structured edit of Chan’s speech.

陈启宗：世界新秩序——中国何去何从？

Ronnie Chan: The New World Order—Where Is China Headed?

Every time I gather with old friends, I always feel a mix of familiarity and heaviness. Familiarity—because we have gone through so much together in the tides of our times. Heaviness—because what I am going to say today may not be pleasant to hear.

My generation has been fortunate. We were born after World War II, in an era of social stability and rapid economic growth. At that time, as long as one was willing to work hard and had some ability, it was almost certain that one could make a good life. Our parents’ generation endured war, famine, and turmoil, while we enjoyed the dividends of peace and growth. Yet precisely because I have lived through the entire journey from poverty to prosperity, I understand more deeply than most that prosperity does not last forever.

1. Lessons from real estate: now is the time to stay alive, preserve your capital

Having worked in real estate for several decades, I have a first-hand, long-view perspective on the industry. I have repeatedly warned my peers that the development model of China’s real estate market is unsustainable. At the time, no one wanted to listen because making money was too easy. Everyone believed that as long as urbanisation continued, housing prices would keep rising.

In 2007, I spoke frankly to a group of real estate developers: “If you have 100 members in your association, 20 to 30 years from now, perhaps only 4 or 5 will be making great fortunes, 35 to 40 will do reasonably well, but at least 15 to 20 will go bankrupt.”

No one wanted to hear such discouraging words then. But time has proven that I had actually underestimated the risk—the bankruptcy rate turned out to be as high as 90%. This experience taught me a profound lesson: in times of prosperity, people rarely heed unpleasant truths; only a very small number of clear-headed individuals can remain objective.

That is why I must stress again today: now is the time to stay alive, preserve your capital; now is not the time to become aggressive to expand in many ways. Many middle-aged entrepreneurs, in their forties and fifties and at the peak of their careers, have lived through the most glorious twenty-five years of China’s economic rise and have become accustomed to opportunities and windfall profits. It is almost impossible to convince them that it’s time to slow down and take a defensive stance. But I must speak the truth: the next decade will not be a time for aggressive expansion; it will be a time for prudence, stability, and survival.

2. Mirror images in history: prosperity in the 1920s and depression of the 1930s

History often repeats itself. In the 1920s, the United States experienced what was called the “Roaring Twenties,” a period of booming economic growth, surging stock markets, and a frenzy of consumption. But by the 1930s, the Great Depression swept across the world, bringing with it unemployment and war.

I believe that today, we are standing at a point in time similar to 1930. The wave of prosperity that has lasted for decades has come to an end, while the coming hardships have yet to fully unfold. Are the good days still ahead? No, the good days are behind us; the difficult days are just beginning.

Of course, I hope that my judgment is wrong. But reason tells me otherwise: the global economic and political order is undergoing fundamental transformation, and such a transformation will not end gently.

3. Global rivalry: the outcome of the China–U.S. collision

For decades, no one has ever called me an optimist. I am more of a realist, perhaps even a mild pessimist. Yet when it comes to China–U.S. relations, I actually feel relatively at ease. In my view, the outcome of the China–U.S. rivalry is already clear. To borrow an English phrase: “game over.”

A Hong Kong businessman once panicked when he heard me say that, thinking that the end of the game must be bad news. I laughed and told him, “No—it means we’ve won.” Of course, that doesn’t mean there won’t be pain. But if the outcome is ultimately in our favour, then the pain becomes bearable. The real suffering comes from uncertainty about tomorrow, yet I believe China’s tomorrow is foreseeable, and the outlook is positive.

Why do I say this?

First, during the trade war, the United States tries to suppress China through tariffs. But such a tactic hurts both sides. You impose a 35% tariff, I impose 35%; you raise it to 100%, I match it with 100%. Eventually, it’s no longer a tariff issue; it becomes an embargo. Both sides suffer, but China can endure it; the United States cannot.

Second, America’s political system and social structure make it incapable of sustaining prolonged external confrontation. I studied in the U.S. in the 1960s and 1970s and witnessed firsthand how the country was torn apart during the Vietnam War. The American system and culture cannot withstand a long-term confrontation; internal divisions will crumble it first.

China is different. The Chinese people are resilient and patient. As long as domestic stability is maintained, external pressure only strengthens their endurance. That is why I often say: in this China–U.S. rivalry, there will be no true winner, but the side that stands longer in the end will be China.

4. The trap of finance and the power of manufacturing

The greatest mistake the West has made over the past few decades is over-financialisation. They turned money into a commodity, allowing finance to detach from the real economy, while manufacturing gradually became hollowed out. I often say half-jokingly that if I had a daughter, I would never let her marry an investment banker—not because they are bad people, but because the entire system is flawed.

This system rewards short-term gains and promotes a virtual economy, while neglecting the very foundation of society—production, manufacturing, and creation.

China’s economy has not been over-financialised, and it continues to be grounded in the real economy. Only when manufacturing is strong can a nation remain stable and resilient.

Today, the United States may appear powerful in technology and military strength, but its supply chains have become dangerously fragile. The consequences of excessive dependence on finance and the neglect of industrial foundations will ultimately become clear.

5. A new international order and a fragmented world

The global order today is being rearranged. The era of the United States as the world leader is in decline. What is declining, however, is not America’s strength, but its will. Domestic political strife, mounting debt, and deep social division are pushing the U.S. back toward isolationism.

The historical root of the United States is isolationism—from the Monroe Doctrine of 1823 to the trade protectionism of the early 20th century—so its current retreat should come as no surprise. In recent years, ministerial-level friends of mine in the Middle East and Europe have told me that the United States is gradually withdrawing from those regions and that its influence is diminishing. Americans themselves may not yet realise this, but countries in the Middle East and Europe are already searching for a new balance.

Henry Kissinger once said, “It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.” This observation remains relevant today.

The world is moving toward fragmentation—the emergence of regional blocs, fragmented supply chains, and political multipolarity. For China, this is not an ideal situation, but neither is it fatal. As a country that relies on imports for both energy and food, China must continue to embrace globalisation and defend multilateral systems.

The Chinese people have always been adept at surviving complex environments. Chinese merchants and entrepreneurs are accustomed to making a living amid ambiguous rules. For precisely this reason, China has the capacity to continue growing in a fragmented world.

6. The challenge for the younger generation: freedom and constraint

When I speak with young people, what worries me most is this: many are obsessed with freedom and overly enamoured of the West. I understand the sentiment: it is natural for those who have long lived under constraints to crave greater freedom. But history has shown that freedom without constraints is the beginning of chaos.

The fundamental problem of the West lies precisely in excessive freedom. Their social, moral decline, political polarisation, and cultural imbalance all stem from it. Today, China is facing comprehensive external pressure on trade, technology, public opinion, and values. If at such a moment we lose our own direction internally, that would be the real danger.

My advice to young people is this: be rationally patriotic, understand history, and hold firmly to your values. Freedom is not indulgence, and independence is not rebellion. What China needs today are clear-headed thinkers, not blind imitators.

Many families still send their children to study in the United States. I am not opposed to learning advanced knowledge, but I oppose sending children abroad to have their values reshaped. American education is indeed open and stimulating, yet its social and cultural influence is extremely powerful. Once values are formed, they are hard to change. Parents think their children are going to acquire knowledge, but what they often absorb instead is a new lifestyle and a new system of judgment.

And the environment there is no longer the America we once knew. Today’s American society suffers from widening inequality, deteriorating public safety, moral confusion, and a level of middle-class anxiety higher than at any time in history. Knowledge gaps can be remedied, but once values are corrupted, they can never be restored.

7. The future world and China’s path

I believe the world ahead will not be stable; it will be multipolar, complex, and fragmented. The United States is likely to continue retreating into isolationism, Europe will experience turbulence, and the Middle East will remain a powder keg.

The two regions I worry about most are the Middle East and Europe. Energy security in the Middle East is vital for China, and any conflict there could ripple across the entire globe. As for Europe, its economic and social structures will inevitably undergo a significant restructuring.

China must stay calm—neither blindly optimistic nor blindly pessimistic. China possess a vast market, a complete industrial chain, and a diligent population. As long as internal stability holds, external pressures cannot defeat it. The real opportunities ahead do not lie in real estate or finance, but in the service sector and innovation-driven real economies. China’s service economy is still far from fully developed, and that is precisely where the next wave of growth will emerge.

I have lived through several eras—from postwar recovery to reform and opening up, from Hong Kong’s rise to the wave of globalisation. Today, more than ever, I understand that the world has changed. We are entering an age of uncertainty, rulelessness, and fragmentation. In the face of this new reality, China cannot afford the illusion of smooth sailing; it must be prepared for prolonged competition and volatility.

I remain optimistic about China’s resilience and potential, but I am also concerned about the uncertainties ahead. Whether in trade, technology, or the international order, China has the capability to address these challenges—but only if it remains internally united and makes rational decisions.

My hope for the younger generation is this: learn from history, abandon blind admiration of the West, stay grounded, and contribute to the nation’s future.

Transcript: Ronnie Chan and David Daokui Li at CCG VIP Luncheon

CCG VIP Luncheon Q&A with Ronnie Chan & David Daokui Li