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Adam Kuź's avatar

The debate between strategic ambiguity and strategic clarity tends to focus on which policy better preserves deterrence. A different problem emerges once deterrence fails: an adversary’s decision to test a limited commitment may itself raise the costs of abandonment and thereby transform the commitment being tested. I call this mechanism the “Corcyra Dilemma.”

Rafael's avatar

I see Wang xiansheng is still delusional. Does any of what the U.S. has been doing in Iran and the ME recently strike any of you as "construction"? Among many other things one could point out. Amazingly delusional for such high-ranking analysis...

Dmitry Mintz's avatar

The fragmentation point has a useful test. The camps have not hardened yet: Kazakhstan's minister signed both the US-led Pax Silica declaration and China's WAICO, and neither framework currently excludes the other. So the key marker is not the appearance of two systems, but the first condition that makes participation in one materially restrict access to the other — financing, export terms, certification or something similar.