Xu Xiaofeng: urgent action needed to stay on track with Paris Agreement goals
Former Deputy Director of the China Meteorological Administration painted a grim picture in November 2024 of rising emissions and unchecked warming.
On November 6, 2024, the 7th China International Import Expo (CIIE) and the 7th Hongqiao International Economic Forum sub-forum "Sustainable Trade Amid Climate Change" was successfully held at the National Exhibition and Convention Center in Shanghai. This event was hosted by the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China and co-hosted by the China International Import Expo Bureau and the Center for China and Globalization (CCG).
Xu Xiaofeng, President of the China Meteorological Service Association (CMSA) and former Deputy Director of the China Meteorological Administration, presented on the dire situation of climate change.
Xu's remarks were originally published on the official WeChat blog of CCG.
中国气象局原副局长许小峰:当前气候变化问题形势严峻
Xu Xiaofeng, Former Deputy Director of the China Meteorological Administration: The Current Situation of Climate Change is Critical
It is a great honour to be invited to participate in this forum "Sustainable Trade Amid Climate Change." Given the current critical and multifaceted state of climate change, this topic undoubtedly holds significant importance for an in-depth discussion.
According to the latest report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), global mean near-surface temperature in 2023 was 1.45 °C above pre-industrial levels, making it the warmest year on record. The outlook for 2024 is similarly concerning, with global average temperatures expected to remain level with 2023 or slightly higher, exhibiting a significant upward trend compared to the multi-year average. Based on relevant records I have reviewed, the global average temperature in the first half of 2024 was even higher than the same period last year. Although there was a slight decrease in the second half, the annual average temperature is still expected to remain at a high level.
Looking back at history, in June 1992, during the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, heads of state from various countries jointly signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), reaching a consensus on addressing climate change issues. By November 2015, at the Paris Climate Conference, over 150 heads of state and government gathered once again to jointly sign the Paris Agreement, explicitly setting the goal of keeping the global temperature rise below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 °C. Additionally, the agreement commits to achieving net-zero emissions in the second half of this century.
Despite global consensus on addressing climate change and significant efforts by many countries, the situation remains dire. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere have not been effectively controlled. Over thirty years since the 1992 signing of the UNFCCC, global carbon dioxide emissions have neither been significantly reduced nor shown signs of decelerating. According to the WMO's annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, the globally-averaged surface concentration of CO2 reached 420.0 parts per million (ppm) in 2023, accounting for 151% of pre-industrial levels, with an increase rate higher than in 2022. In response, Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the WMO, emphasised, "This should set alarm bells ringing among decision-makers. We are clearly off track to meet the Paris Agreement goal."
Facing the severe situation of global climate anomalies, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has issued multiple warnings. On September 6, 2023, he said, "Our planet has just endured a season of simmering — the hottest summer on record. Climate breakdown has begun." He urged leaders of all countries to intensify their efforts and seek climate solutions to avoid "the worst of climate chaos." Then, on July 25, 2024, Guterres delivered another speech, highlighting that July 21 had become the hottest day on record, with temperatures continuing to rise in the days that followed. He also cited the World Health Organization statistics, saying that heat is estimated to kill almost half a million people a year, about 30 times more than tropical cyclones.
Extreme heat is driving an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. In addition to the rising death toll from heatwaves and high temperatures, disasters such as hurricanes, floods, droughts, wildfires, and rising sea levels are intensifying. In 2024 alone, several abnormal weather events occurred, including strong winds in Nanchang, Jiangxi, on March 31 that blew people out of a 20th-floor window, and unprecedented seawater backflow along the coasts of Dalian and Jiangsu. These incidents serve as a stark reminder that climate change is closely linked to human activity.
In the Global Risks Report 2024 released by the World Economic Forum in January 2024, extreme weather ranked first among 20 different types of disaster risks. During the summer of 2024, the Northern Hemisphere was devastated by extreme disasters, impacting regions across Europe, Asia, and North America. Additionally, specific areas experienced particularly severe calamities, including floods in desert areas of the Middle East and desertified areas of Spain, along with record-breaking heatwaves and landslides in South Asia.
Beyond natural disasters, climate change has also significantly impacted sustainable trade. To address climate issues, reducing carbon emissions has become a global necessity. As part of this effort, carbon taxes have been adopted by several countries as a trade measure. Finland was the first to implement a carbon tax in 1990, followed by similar policies in other European nations. A proposal approved by the European Union's Economic and Financial Affairs Council on March 15, 2022, has further reshaped global trade. This proposal mandates the imposition of carbon tariffs on five categories of imports into the EU—steel, cement, aluminium, fertilisers, and electricity production—starting in 2026. The implementation of this policy will undoubtedly trigger significant ripple effects across global trade.
In response to the multifaceted challenges posed by climate change, the Chinese government released the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 2035 in 2022. This strategy emphasises, "To prevent the transmission of climate risks from natural ecosystems to economic and social systems, we need to adhere to the concept of the synergistic effect between mitigation, adaptation, and sustainable development, focusing on key sectors that are sensitive to the impact of climate change, so as to enhance the climate resilience of the PRC's economic and social systems."
The topics discussed at today's forum are closely aligned with the principles of this strategy. Through the exchange of ideas and perspectives among representatives, we aim to deepen our understanding of climate change and sustainable trade, fostering a positive policy environment and societal response to address climate change issues actively.
The China Meteorological Service Association (CMSA), which I am part of, has participated multiple times in the China International Fair for Trade in Services (CIFTIS) in Beijing, organising forums on topics such as climate change, the new economy, the low-carbon economy, new energy development, and comprehensive health. However, this marks its debut at the CIIE and our first forum at the CIIE centred on climate change. We greatly cherish this opportunity and look forward to sharing and exchanging views on climate change with more participants.
In my earlier remarks, I might have expressed a somewhat pessimistic tone. As Mr. Pascal Lamy [Coordinator of the Jacques Delors think tank network (Paris, Berlin, Brussels) and Former Director-General of the WTO] mentioned, although action is being taken, it is not enough. Mr. Fu Chengyu [former Chairman of China Petroleum and Chemical Corp (Sinopec)] also sharply pointed out that while politicians often make bold promises, they frequently fail to follow through in practice. This is indeed a serious issue we face.
Since the signing of the UNFCCC in 1992, the global community has established legal frameworks, including the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement, to address climate change. However, despite these legal instruments, CO2 emissions continue to rise, global warming is intensifying, and extreme weather events are becoming more frequent.
During the CIFTIS, journalists asked me about the connection between climate change and areas such as new energy, the new economy, and comprehensive health. I responded that without the issue of climate change, the low-carbon economy might not have developed as rapidly. When the host inquired about the future impacts of climate change, I offered the following two opinions:
First, if climate change is not curbed and emissions continue to rise, irreversible ecological deterioration will occur. As Nobel Laureate in Economics William Nordhaus pointed out, once a certain tipping point is reached, the entire natural ecosystem will undergo irreversible degradation. What is currently considered "frequent extreme weather and climate events" may no longer be viewed as extreme but rather become the new normal.
Second, despite the current grim situation, I still believe that with a commitment to China's development path and technological innovation, the country is capable of addressing climate change. Significant progress has already been made in the development of new energy and green electricity. By maintaining this trajectory and advancing technology, clean energy can become sufficient. According to analysis, China's reserves of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar are vast enough to support the goals of green electricity and clean energy.
Therefore, I believe that despite the many challenges, optimism should be maintained. By reducing emissions, developing new energy sources, and promoting technological innovation, the challenges posed by climate change can be addressed, leading to a better environment. Thank you!