Da Wei's reflection on U.S. and China-U.S. ties after three months at Stanford
Da Wei's reflection on U.S. and China-U.S. ties after three months at Stanford
Leading Tsinghua IR scholar reminds China of a robust America, warns of fragile bilateral ties, and observes Uncle Sam adapting to "life without China." His advice for Beijing: avoid internal mistakes
On April 24, 2024, 达巍 Da Wei, Director of the Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS) and a Professor at the Department of International Relations, School of Social Science, Tsinghua University, gave a lecture at the Renmin University of China (RUC). He reflected on his recent visits to the U.S., emphasizing the importance of on-site research for scholars and students in Area Studies.
Since the easing of the China zero-COVID policy in early 2023, Da has made several trips to the U.S., including visits from late July to early August 2023. From early January to late March 2024, he served as a Visiting Scholar, China Policy Fellow, at the Walter H. Shorentein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) of the Freeman Spogli Institute of International Studies (FSI) at Stanford University
Da's main points include:
The United States and its allies have solidified their strategic competition with China, and a competitive dynamic now defines Sino-U.S. relations. The U.S. perception of China has become entrenched across its various sectors. There is a prevalent misconception in the United States about China's strategic intentions, but communication or clarifying misunderstandings is not going to fix it.
The current stability in Sino-U.S. relations is precarious and potentially unsustainable because of its weak foundation and the unpredictability of U.S. elections. Taiwan, Ukraine, overcapacity, and the South China Sea present significant risks.
American society and economy remain robust. Compared with China, the U.S. has a relatively high tolerance for social upheaval. The U.S. continues to lead in critical areas such as artificial intelligence and higher education.
American society is adjusting to "a life without China." Even though China has reopened its borders post-pandemic, the response from American companies and students has been tepid.
China must ensure that its policy-making is not overly influenced by the competitive dynamics with the U.S. China must recognize that it is almost impossible for the United States to "win a competition" against China if China avoids internal mistakes.
The Chinese version is available on the official WeChat blogs of the CISS and the Department of International Relations of the RUC. The emphasis is by the RUC blog.
重新近观美国之后的思考
Reflections from Renewed On-Site Examinations of the United States
Area Studies cannot be conducted effectively without frequent travel and communication. Based on several trips to the United States over the last ten months for international dialogue, many changes are evident compared to five years ago. The observations and thoughts on Sino-American relations and American society can be summarized as follows.
I. In terms of structural understanding, a competitive dynamic now defines Sino-U.S. relations.
Over recent years, the U.S. perception of China as a strategic competitor has solidified. It is unlikely that this viewpoint will change in the short term, especially solely through communications or by clarifying misunderstandings.
Firstly, the United States and its allies have solidified their strategic portrayal of China. Chinese scholars’ viewpoint can hardly be heard, and sometime in track II meeting, we can also feel the confrontation between Chinese and Western scholars. The conceptual perspective of Western countries towards China is nearing a "second Cold War" scenario. In such an environment, the contributions of Chinese scholars are often marginalized; even China experts in the U.S. find their influence limited within the country.
Secondly, the U.S. perception of China has become entrenched across various sectors. There is a prevalent misconception in the United States about China's strategic intentions, that China intends to replace the United States and collaborate with Russia to overturn the existing international order and establish a parallel system. Various "conspiracy theories" about China are widespread, especially among some former government officials, some members of the so-called “deep state”, and some media outlets.
II. The short-term trajectory of Sino-U.S. relations will be characterized by a coexistence of stability and risk.
Although relations have stabilized compared to the past two years, this stability is fragile and potentially unsustainable.
Since the meeting between the leaders of the two countries in San Francisco, there have been positive developments in Sino-U.S. relations. Collaboration in the Fentanyl issue has been positive, military exchanges have progressed steadily, and dialogue and cooperation in artificial intelligence will start soon, all contributing to stabilizing bilateral relations. However, due to the absence of a solid foundation in Sino-U.S. relations and the uncertainty introduced by the upcoming 2024 U.S. election, the current state of stability in Sino-U.S. relations may prove short-lived.
In the short term, several key risks threaten Sino-U.S. relations.
The Taiwan Strait. The upcoming inauguration speech by Taiwan's incoming leader, Lai Ching-te, scheduled for May 20, is raising concerns. His potential re-election effort 4 years later could further escalate the situation.
Conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The United States is displeased with the economic and trade exchanges between China and Russia, suspecting China of supporting Russia's defense industry and scrutinizing China's reaction to the strengthening ties between North Korea and Russia.
Economy, trade, and technology. The United States is concerned about what it perceives as "overcapacity" in China, which could lead to new tariffs on Chinese exports.
The South China Sea. The dispute between China and the Philippines over the Second Thomas Shoal could heighten tensions in Sino-U.S. relations or even trigger the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT), representing the greatest short-term risk factor for Sino-U.S. relations.
III. Overall perception of American society: the U.S. economy and society remain robust.
Admittedly, the United States does face a series of problems such as political polarization, income inequality, racial tensions, deteriorating public safety, and drug abuse. Nevertheless, it is crucial to recognize that American society has a relatively high tolerance for social upheaval. Assessing America's internal issues should be done within the context of its own societal framework.
The current social conflicts in the United States have not compromised the foundation of this developed country.
The U.S. maintains its rich natural resource endowments.
America's capacity for technological innovation continues to thrive, as evidenced by California's booming internet economy and rapid advancements in AI. AI technology holds the potential to catalyze explosive economic growth and address current social conflicts in the United States.
The quality of higher education in elite American universities remains as high as ever. Recent intense protests at elite American universities over Middle Eastern issues have led to strong police intervention and global attention. While these events might appear as "disorder", they are also manifestations that the younger generation is actively engaging with significant global challenges, striving for social justice, and seeking a balance between freedom and order amid conflict. These qualities are essential for future leaders of any country.
Every nation's international influence has its ups and downs. Although the influence of the United States is in a downward phase, its role as the largest developed country and a pivotal player in international relations is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future.
IV. Reflections on Sino-U.S. cultural exchanges.
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a widespread belief in Western societies, including the United States, that the future of the world lay with China, and that the 21st century belonged to China, leading to a willingness to engage in exchanges and cooperation. However, the pandemic significantly disrupted these interactions, and American society gradually began to adapt to “a life without China”. This inertia has led to a new perception that American life can continue effectively without China. Consequently, even though China has reopened its borders post-pandemic, the enthusiasm of American companies and students to engage with China may continue to lag behind previous levels.
There are indeed many rational and welcoming voices within the United States. Throughout travels and interactions in the U.S., numerous positive attitudes towards Sino-U.S. cultural exchanges have been observed. American universities continue to implement policies that welcome Chinese students, and everyday interactions reveal that ordinary Americans generally do not harbor significant anti-China sentiments. It appears that more extreme views towards China are confined to specific, limited groups. For the average American, while some doubts and prejudices might exist, the concept of a "China threat" does not dominate their concerns. This suggests that there is substantial potential for China to enhance and expand cultural exchanges with the United States.
V. How should China respond to the so-called strategic competition with the U.S.?
Chinese leaders have repeatedly articulated that China does not endorse defining Sino-U.S. relations through the lens of strategic competition. This perspective is visionary. China should maintain a level of flexibility in its strategic posture, supported by genuine strategic confidence. It is important to recognize that although the United States initiated the strategic competition with China, the impact of this competition on American society, such as social management, economic, innovation, and education policies, is limited.
China must ensure that its policies across various sectors do not become excessively intertwined with this competitive dynamic. China has become a major global power; it is almost impossible for the United States to "win a competition" against China if China avoids internal mistakes. In China, concepts like strategic confidence, strategic stability, and prioritizing internal growth are often discussed. These concepts are great in that essentially, they revolve around how China can better develop itself rather than letting a "number one versus number two" competition with the United States dictate its policies and maneuvers.
VI. Scholars and young students in China engaging in Area Studies should make every effort to participate in international exchanges.
This can provide them with a genuine understanding of their research subjects, which is beneficial for teaching, research, as well as talent development.
 | A guest post by
|